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JCR Increases Bulgaria's Investment Rating
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Japan Credit Rating Agency increased Bulgaria's investment rating in foreign currency from BBB- to BBB with stable perspective.
In a special press release it was announced that Bulgaria maintains its progress on political, economic and budgetary reforms in pursuit of EU entry in 2007. The country has improved fiscal flexibility through budgetary discipline and significant reduction of public debts. Stability of currency and inflation underpinned by the currency board arrangement, the press release also reads, pointing out that there has been expanding production capacity through inflows of foreign direct investment.
As a negative factor was pointed out that transformation of industrial structure still at primary stage. High unemployment deterring further economic growth and increasing external debts centering on private sector.
Possible economic overheating remains a concern. Government debts decreased substantially centering on foreign debt. Large current account deficit remains a concern, but external liquidity is amply secured by a strong liquidity position.
Outcome of the election will put only limited impact on the ratings. With a parliamentary election scheduled for June 25, 2005, the government has been maintaining a prudent fiscal policy. JCR remains concerned about a possible economic overheating, but considers that the measures taken by the government will prove effective in curbing the strong domestic demand and gradually narrowing the trade deficit.
At the present stage, JCR sees Bulgaria's EU entry in 2007 as a strong possibility. A change of administration looks highly likely in the June election. However, the outcome of the election will have only a limited impact on the ratings since no major policy shift is likely under a next administration, given the cross-party commitment to the county's EU accession. JCR will consider a possible revision of the ratings primarily in consideration of the significant reduction of government debt and the progress being made toward EU accession in 2007. |
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